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Where are mobility investments going?
Thibaut Mueller, Associate Partner, McKinsey Geneva office and member of the McKinsey Centre for Future Mobility
Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019 · 2:22 p.m. · 30m 47s
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have to control it and use it or that haven't had any time the cease to exist
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and how it's set up trapped at the minutes there is only one car at level three
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which was launched there last yeah yeah he's the one who uh oh
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so control anti environment around the car
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and also and you use the driver
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to not to have to control everything at any time it is true that the
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driver still has to be a wood burning and be ready to intervene if need
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so this is something which is viable
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when it becomes very interesting is when we get to level four
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when in some situation like for instance you want more to way or in the centre of the city at
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a specific area the car can then do everything she
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can drive by itself it can understand the environment around it
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and the car can oh so stop by itself if there is a need for
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that so in such situations then there's no need to have a person in the car
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in terms increment and and that's the the phone level
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five where the car can go everywhere without any need to
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haven't tried first are we looking at your aunt to france infinity or maybe
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something which is impossible so this is something i think we all agree that we may never happened
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we never happened but we would get two different levels in cut a scale
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and actually for for so to explain how this system works
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and operates in fact this is then that would put the most ratings since then
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has to replicate what we do has a try and you will start waiver
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a sense uh is to be a certain
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hanover like our technology you write our bayes technology
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and then we ought to take that coming from those uh sensors will then be combined
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the car has to understand where it's located on the road where it is
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and uh with the motto that the the it generates from the environment
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then there is some but not all it has to take a decision so it's exactly the same has
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what you do when you're trying to go to the
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to the elements which are the most complex eh in that
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system is to the far in uh how to take
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a decision what decision to take and secondly the uh sensors
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so when it comes to the definition of how to drive
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what they so complicated here is not a necessary old in everyday situations
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most cars a google or the s. o. a. go to drive
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in in it and this man a ninety nine point nine percent
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of the cases what is really tricky he so unless the cases
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which or really the instances that uh oh sure very rarely
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and can be very difficult for computer to understand one of example yeah
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he's a uh here pictures from the base there when you have a bikes on the car
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so if you look at this uh make sure it's it by on the carpet for computer
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i understand i understand with the cameras they are
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able to recognise that by to recognise the cup or
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no and that to say it's a bike on the car uh rather than by
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coming in front of the car that's something which is extremely complicated and he's he's in such a case
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sees which mean that we're not quite at the level where we want to be and you can be
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pretty sure that uh the car you need to make sure that the car can recognise
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such example also it that way so that they pretty on the road isn't something that car can drive of uh
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you see if it is paper or something something it so this is something still maybe tricky and
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complicated but but but looked at that stage i think we have sufficient to most most situations today
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oh the okay complicating the issue i think it's
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this complicated but technically photo stop 'cause think oh
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all those sense sense as a in the you know
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that you create the image around off my environment around
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so as you can see that not that free and
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not an s. by a slap a work with cameras and
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also a upright are and then write out which is that
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if you see a difficulty we had passed that yes that
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that's the nice because then it's not like thought there
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are some circumstances when it rains when the snow is
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they it's makes it more difficult to try to in autonomous autonomous
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manner and i can not have deeper press section of the environment and
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now i have an example where wrestler was striving
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and autonomous manner or hit a track because the cameras
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that was in mono and stereo cameras when that our i don't see
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property i believe that white truck was in
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fact this guy so he he uh i hate
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their track as a result you out the u. k. eight is equipped with a very light up a
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basket a pain so five cents of uh yes it's a car that exist on the market but there
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a core but for according to uh so the korea car that may or four or
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five which are going to be developed in the coming yes we need a lot more
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uh sensors than what we have today so it would be very expensive in terms
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of cost and of course i would come back to that it would mean that
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the way that those cars would be sour what p.
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less hair ourselves so to individuals but more like a
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i think it two or three it's our fault such
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as taxis without trackers so the next question is when
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can we expect this to happen so if you look at
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it but if you like to get this in five minutes ago
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and that is a french of the new entry about free yes and no
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of what we had for years ago and the button sixteen and the right and the premium companies such
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an asset recipe and or you are dissipating difference entropy one and so on if you ask us today
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and with it or get nato those expectations by
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three to four yes or you can see coca
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a part of the fact that group and that's the your
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orders printer manufacturers offer do they eat or in fact call p.
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okay then it when they can expect this to be available on the market and we know that it's gonna be
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a lot more complicated than we than the first the anticipated
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and then you won't happen but hey this just to quote
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by uh wayne or a c. e. o. what is the
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one of the company with the most advanced and it's the most
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success and that her subject he say honestly i don't
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think we have reached a level five maybe the for for
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but they will always be and to sit in the sit coms fancy so
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eight some cities or in some places than that uh uh everywhere so now
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who is it that the bail or that that energy and where that all day
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and uh that's difficult to come and there is very little information on the price a is it
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a poem about what is good is that it can be fun yeah where most of the best hoping
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kerry can't get sick when impossible to do that in europe it's a very happy here which i think
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are restricted in kinds of registration for we have
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got to stay and pilot project where um their licenses
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that's the the bottomless cup or they have to report that they uh and one
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of then on how many times that weren't written with that and the sky or
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and how often the key you meant right what has to be in that whole time had to intervene
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so uh as you can see here on the left hand side how many nice
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stay for three fenway mo uncool go
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all of them all of a million kilometres
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uh for testing those cars in california on rooms and they have
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and i've right sure for the eleven thousand
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miles so nearly twenty thousand kilometres before dancing
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uh have a human to uh to intervene of course you can not
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play on toast a toast paper somehow opened this is the feeling so when i say that
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most cases or or uh so completely cease to prove that he can some face plates of so
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uh showing us that uh the company's was too far
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away from those figures to show how much are for
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only to those companies have offered you the companies because they stop it
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and working on that's uh in two thousand and six and so on
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to work and different that technology somewhat i think it's i just want to
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show you as you can see that the you know on the two
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oh free the lounge or car manufacturers
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and daimler and brother show show some
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a performance it not so impressive general motors
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uh oh a few years ago the company
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a startup company who put you see sir that caring
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and it got that kind of technology with some success
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and you can see this now uh we say uh let's try got this car was
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well in fact you could position but true technology to reach level five is not that good
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then the the uh the next it down to what which was report to and to publish for about
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or what not half years ago c. d. to look at the reasons why that was an x. it was an
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accident and i think uh and there as an idea how or that's what everybody is when you can fit together she
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one last point is what does it mean can somebody
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this uh page hit on screen shows to cost uh no dollars per mile
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for the different modes of transport all oh this is in the united states
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uh and that would give you an idea about uh how much attacks because the
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uh you berries uh a little cheaper and then private car is even cheaper and then of course
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public transport is even cheaper or even now you tell you said that i would uh
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use an autonomous car for example missy g. n. instead of sending
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data to uh some uh uh individual persons instead i would use the
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taxi fleet without live us how much would that cause or number of like what this is about that but yet uh
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you can go find yourself for for example with that kind of a
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a bat without the driver drive unless you better and therefore you've come to
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cost them out at all comparable to a private cars
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on one and then also a public transit on the other
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so for us this means to six this means that
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uh first of all the trend that and the tendency to
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have few or many fewer people buying private cause this is
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a trend that will help people carrying on and it will be
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a more more interesting yeah on the financial level and also we we
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uh need for that kind of uh autonomous a mobility the autonomous taxis
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to be gathered together with public transport because otherwise if you completely replace
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public transport to we is a shared rubber taxes this will never work
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because of a road congestion serve also just uh to uh mentioned that i think this is what
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i was talking about earlier on when i mentioned the greater pollution uh for as a disease that
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something that by twenty twenty five twenty thirty will
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uh changed markedly in terms of mobility specially in uh
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big arrow cities i would not carrying on and then i will uh suppose
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to take some questions on that um topic because i'm certain you have some questions and i will talk about that if if occasion
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so what we create our senses in fact um model that uh tells us what uh
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the electrical car penetration will be on a
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global scale i'm hey yeah you can see
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you can see here i see and i may she v. so therefore you have some uh
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conventional or cars and that's a more seventy cars and
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also some might hybrid cars for example so just priors
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and you also have the hybrid cars uh for hybrid and then uh uh d. v. battery uh electorate
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together so therefore if we're look at a target hybrid and
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battery electric uh together you can see that by your twenty twenty
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we will be at around three percent a much more in china
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and in europe and the united states we will be roughly at around three percent and what
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i mentioned earlier on which is quite interesting is that even if there is so much pressure
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especially in terms of other legislation regarding electric cars
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and include records that we don't think that we will
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go above twenty five percent on a global scale and in fact it's uh
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slightly lower number in europe until twenty thirty especially from the fact that
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first of all we need to be able to put just i'm and secondly
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we also need for our users to work down the phone
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you ask users uh nah roughly ten percent of users would say
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that they are just you thinking about buying a narrative very core
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but now if you think that's enough i just i'm out of these people who think about is now will do
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so so you say you will ever reach that a figure by uh twenty
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twenty five uh however and i wanted to uh show do you sell you
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we'll see what i call the fireworks of electric cars because in yes to call this is the number of new
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uh models of electric cars that would be launched a year up until twenty
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twenty five what has been announced so far because as you know we texan
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i one so they know already what
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they will develop in terms of electric
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car ours and number of it because it would be launched next year and
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what is a uh especially in an an and to a reply
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here to them still to argument to fort affiliated arizona being sold
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by your automotive produces an manufacturers in europe it's extremely difficult
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to reach the ninety five percent mark which means that just to spain for them that
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ball in the main goal here is full deflate for example if you could post again
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for the whole fleet at all sitting in twenty twenty
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two to have an average emissions mean that is below
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ninety five grams of zero to but we don't need to use at
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the moment i think that there are at about one hundred and five
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grab some saying no that sounds fun actually care are and i feel very correlate is counted as zero that's
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not correct technique maybe but yeah that is the figure that uh we give so therefore they which is unusual
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that is a reason why all of the uh automotive manufacturers are trying to produce
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and sell as many a uh i get three cars as possible because even if they
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sell at a loss for each electric car the penalties that have to pay all much much higher
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than the monet they will lose the by setting a picasso to last
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so what also want to say is that at the moment it's also
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in the interest of the automotive manufacturers to produce as much as
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possible to sell as many as possible not so sort of reason why
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they're investing in the in the uh charging infrastructure
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in order to mature rated consumers and uh therefore
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they have to have uh this uh embrace intent of investments on i've look at europe for a second
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one can see here's the penetration of a
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complete the electric um as compared to before new
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the segments in which we think that we will have a minimal if we
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cards and more quickly uh de p. c.'s tia electric buses act uh because
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we're see that in twenty eighteen we were at around ten percent and i think that
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and we say that uh with everything that's been not by a cities in big cities are just powers and so forth that that
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penetration of city electric uh the buses uh on one hand would
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be much higher we does not mean that this would be present everywhere
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and maybe we'll take longer in remote communities but yet this is something that's
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quite interesting to see which is to evolution of the uh bus a penetration it
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and how this would accelerate compared to to uh to carve segments and this is not the
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first time i speak about this and everybody owes us me okay what's up me without region
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i don't have a personal opinion to give
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you about these and i and how we
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not uh give you a particular technical opinion on to what is best in c. really
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what that will always that if it is a new the whole menu hydrogen buses also but you
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haven't nominate two buses also but they are and what you can see is that at the moment
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what is a really happy does that uh people by intrigued by sees and uh
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therefore this also means that at some stage we know the individually uh an environment
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hand regarding the fact that may
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i all also to some uh
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musicality is that want to good actually criticism saying that
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to us so we'll carry on i hear red eye height
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more than average at the moment so dot is uh just to share this with you
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and then i can answer first uh with your questions which i think you would up obviously about this uh this
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is what i had to say but uh did actually finish and part of this presentation uh stated to start wasted
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what we see is that this industry which was uh
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not too much even just re s. because i'm a mobility industry and what we see here
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is that we have many new accompanies many a startup ten
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or so many technology companies that uh start playing the role
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in a mobility and uh there's a studies were carried out for
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a number of years and uh we're we're truck the investments external investments
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either we is uh companies being uh apologised over
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and also regarding findings for startups a in
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the mobility a sector and what we see
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is that uh we see all of uh
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one hundred one thousand rather companies were but some uh investments of uh
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for total investment of more than twenty one twenty obedience insert one to ten
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and that is just for comparison the twenty eighteen you know
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only get twenty eighty and we're looking at almost seventy
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billion investment just for that year and this was more
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than the but research and development a project for the
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twenty because automotive manufacturers uh on the well why scale
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all of the r. n. g. budgets are combined not just on
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uh that particular uh this is post on the development of a conventional calls so
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where do these investment school what uh we have done here is to look at
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does a two hundred uh began haters and to share that
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in a ten uh technology uh clusters which or aligned with a cease
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so therefore we will see how where did in these investments going the first thing i want to show you
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he is the fact that uh we have seen a an incredible acceleration and you can see here
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do you have really h. uh investment area between twenty ten and
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twenty fourteen was a eight at b. d. and i point six billion
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and the average in the last four years is just
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over forty begin value another said last year uh seventy billion
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so to show you d.'s without mentioning them one by one but uh to show you
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how does a shows the most of this uh transactions and investments are investments in there
00:22:05
investments in uh
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a sigh set is over one billion in a purchase another some a big companies which means data
00:22:15
a big part of this one hundred per disobedience come from a soft bangs um beacon japanese uh
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and the price investing in these without much success uh lately but still uh they uh invest
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a lot there than the one i don't i don't want to to show you is that
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out of just one one twenty billions fifty biggie and
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so for hating which she didn't leave to grab a better
00:22:41
and that kind of uh companies
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and then you can see that yeah it's general investments in anything that has
00:22:48
to do with the refrigeration because this is something that is carried out lied to
00:22:53
automotive manufacturers first of all internally with other companies for example enjoy some
00:22:57
some we know but develop batteries and down in terms of uh connectivity
00:23:01
this is something for example was how mundane purchased of uh by some some in order to develop some out
00:23:06
in for payment systems into cars and that is something
00:23:09
where we see less a dynamic activity and uh yet
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afterwards we see a lot of investment in addition to that do with autonomous driving the you
00:23:19
have some uh companies that all specialist in a sense is for example in cameras all light out
00:23:26
so for example the mobile like it's which isn't is right in company that
00:23:29
was a boat over for fifteen point four four billion dollars but i intend
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and that or a few other data received uh
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a few a billion a begins to uh and
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also the companies involved in this in your conductors
00:23:45
because on one hand you need the census but
00:23:49
you also need to of quite a lot of capacity
00:23:55
i mean for the processes in the cars themselves in order to be able to
00:24:00
get your algorithms to work because they would all the needed
00:24:03
to uh work uh locally on the look out in the car
00:24:09
no such an interesting question is when it is investing and not just the uh company visited investment that hope
00:24:15
makes this investments and uh what we can see is that a wheel well
00:24:21
i have a lot of our german friends um who don't really like
00:24:25
we to show this because you can see that ninety three percent of these investments come from some companies
00:24:30
that all not native automotive uh companies a lot of
00:24:34
them come from venture capital is then phonetic which is
00:24:38
who of cools will also at one stage want to use it and then you see in
00:24:43
a number of investments coming from uh some of a technology company some so some so intel
00:24:50
you also have of course little apple that kind of companies
00:24:54
and then uh last but not least you also have some
00:24:57
companies such as massive as bosch quality et cetera uh they accelerate investment but
00:25:04
they're not yet uh that uh such a yellow interesting question
00:25:08
and he's a tissue where all the companies who received investments
00:25:14
and you can see that uh uh out of uh all over two hundred billions
00:25:19
you have us uh the just under the that was the united states where you
00:25:24
have the biggest number of companies and therefore that is where you have the biggest ecosystem
00:25:29
that is followed by china uh uh and uh the united kingdom
00:25:34
and then you can see do you european union which is really
00:25:38
far beyond what's interesting to see is that you have quite an important
00:25:42
number of companies but yet did not receive much in terms of investment on average
00:25:47
and uh finally i output to switzerland uh but this is
00:25:51
a at a different level as such in terms of a size
00:25:59
now in order to uh conclude on that uh last page uh with uh
00:26:03
to tell you what that means because that you would see some uh companies
00:26:09
i would say do classic car companies there will need to work
00:26:15
in some across systems ways technological companies so
00:26:19
hey are just to show you two five kind of it was systems that uh we see
00:26:24
uh ourselves that uh as a magic assistance and i will uh speaker quickly uh
00:26:30
but each one of them in order to expand also a point of you'll rather my own personal point of view on this
00:26:36
so what you can see here is that uh we especially
00:26:42
ah the car manufacturers to print in common factors german car manufacturers
00:26:47
cool on the financial basis all relatively stable over so if you follow the news
00:26:52
in the media you can see that a lot of them at the moment all
00:26:56
reducing their investment a white uh considerably
00:27:00
and also we just in their costs uh i but yet there will try to keep their position
00:27:06
and a central position in this it was system
00:27:09
uh for example was timer uh with b. m. w.
00:27:15
and who is there a partner's traditional partners such
00:27:18
as abortion country with whom that would carry on working
00:27:21
and with whom they are developing some technology such as of them's driving technology
00:27:26
and have also a bold because i was always be a
00:27:30
cost probably that are working to uh you have google tom tom
00:27:35
and what uh we had before which is it was look at some stage and hit the ball to the
00:27:42
map so three maps rather than coffee maps working the
00:27:45
world and a dev law creating their own uh companies
00:27:53
which uh of involved in shared mobility is such as for example a car to
00:28:00
go which was to drive now for b. m. w. of shoes shana and free now
00:28:07
so this is what you have with the pew automotive i
00:28:11
i products other centre offered you consistently of others which or
00:28:15
our financial products which uh or not able to buy pay for the missus reinvestment surges on that
00:28:21
angie i mean budget was soft back and down
00:28:24
are starting to a bar chainsaw foolish to collaborate ways
00:28:29
some starters and some small companies a wall
00:28:32
developing some uh technological part but it's it
00:28:35
on a much more multi polar bases your dissenting was for the here as i stated earlier on
00:28:41
for those board of uh on norway i for just
00:28:44
over one b. uh and and the automation for or
00:28:48
all just a one billion and uh investing some more in order to
00:28:51
develop the technology is uh for optimum striving yeah you have way more
00:28:59
and i can remind you
00:29:02
that a way mall lose a lot of uh do
00:29:05
a google grouper and uh they are developed that do
00:29:10
not buy cars somebody access to buy class for them but they all dolls while developing the technology is data
00:29:15
and have the most success in developing this technology isn't that
00:29:18
about medical rubber ha was a
00:29:20
number of uh automotive ooh and
00:29:28
therefore you can't expect them to develop a vision themselves for
00:29:31
example you have your trust uh you have shot was so we'll
00:29:34
said so it's a bit like the folks call model for the i. phone production
00:29:39
in the sense that they would be the ones for this in your car but then after was to
00:29:43
intelligence i would say and a real added value will or especially come from way more and finally
00:29:51
here you have a by do
00:29:54
which is the chinese google search and uh they all
00:29:59
working on a multi apollo model with the apple cart
00:30:03
for no which should be groups uh joe around seventy partners
00:30:08
in order to offer a mobility services and develop
00:30:12
so um uh technology is uh autonomous uh
00:30:15
driving technologies also my own personal point of view
00:30:19
uh is that uh this uh apple about four ms rather something that seems to be present in the
00:30:24
media in terms of publicity but not yet some
00:30:27
seen quite substantial in the terms of development and said
00:30:32
i've spoken about i'm sure that you have a few questions i would
00:30:35
stop here many thanks for your attention thus far number you tell your questions
Conference Program
Address from the Commune de Bagnes
Eloi Rossier, President of the Commune de Bagnes
Dec. 5, 2019 · 9:11 a.m.
204 views
Introduction to the Forum
Isabelle Schirmer, VMIF Founder
Dec. 5, 2019 · 9:19 a.m.
Political economy of transport in switzerland. Who governs, who decides and who provides funding?
Bernard Wuthrich, Political Journalist, Le Temps
Dec. 5, 2019 · 9:26 a.m.
Be bold! Rethinking mobility for future generations
Marcel Maurer, President of TeleSion, Board Member of FMV, former President of the city of Sion
Dec. 5, 2019 · 9:48 a.m.
Questions & Answers
Panel
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:08 a.m.
Integrating mobility planning and land planning in the alps, application to telecabine connections between mountains and valleys
Romain Fournier, Mobility Specialist, Antenne Région Valais romand
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:17 a.m.
Telecabine Connections : Vision from the Canton du Valais and Planning Considerations
Gilles Délèze, Telecabine Connections Expert, Mobility Service, Canton of Valais
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:20 a.m.
Télé Marécottes Project and challenges for local communes
Florian Piasenta, President of the Commune of Salvan
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:30 a.m.
Commune de Bagnes Project - Possible inclusion of the Telecabine Le Châble Verbier in the Regional Travel Transport System
Guillaume Page, Planner, Commune de Bagnes
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:41 a.m.
Questions & Answers
Panel
Dec. 5, 2019 · 10:54 a.m.
Transitioning from legacy mobility to future mobility, technology options and choices
Christoph Ellert, Professor HES SO Valais Wallis and Jakob Rager, Director of the Centre for Energy Research for Municipalities (CREM)
Dec. 5, 2019 · 11:35 a.m.
Project OFT mobility lab – Decision support tool for planning mobility networks in an energy context First results – Measuring and Visualising Mobility flows in the City of Sion
Léonard Evequoz, Coordinator Agglo Valais Central
Dec. 5, 2019 · 12:02 p.m.
Questions & Answers
Panel
Dec. 5, 2019 · 12:17 p.m.
Foster sustainable innovation in mountainous areas through the project 'PARCOURS I-tinérants in the Mont Blanc region
Diane von Gunten & Ismael Grosjean
Dec. 5, 2019 · 12:23 p.m.
Examples of local charging infrastructure for e-mobility
Blaise Lovisa, Commercial Director and Energy Products Manager, ALTIS Group SA
Dec. 5, 2019 · 1:59 p.m.
Where are mobility investments going?
Thibaut Mueller, Associate Partner, McKinsey Geneva office and member of the McKinsey Centre for Future Mobility
Dec. 5, 2019 · 2:22 p.m.
112 views
